ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WIND POWER POTENTIAL AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN NORTH AFRICA

Abstract

Reliable long-term planning of wind energy systems requires evaluating the effects of climate change on wind resources, especially in areas with substantial wind potential like North Africa.

This study employs high-resolution regional climate models from the CORDEX framework combined with a multi-model ensemble (MME) approach to evaluate projected changes in wind speed and wind power density (WPD) under the RCP 4.5 scenario for the period 2021–2050.

When model outputs are compared to ERA reanalysis data, a constant positive bias in simulated wind speeds is found, necessitating the use of bias correction methods. Model results indicate better agreement with observed conditions after rectification. According to the results, there won't be any notable long-term trends in the wind resources across North Africa. Nonetheless, there is evident seasonal variation, with fall displaying more fluctuation and summer displaying the maximum wind potential. Projected wind energy potential is more confident and less unpredictable according to the MME technique.